Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.985744 2.415670 2.901598 3.489209 4.178104 4.957624 5.903808
2025-04-20 1.433892 1.989151 2.688539 3.624417 4.832890 6.328614 8.306055
2025-04-27 1.086346 1.688009 2.518826 3.727601 5.414616 7.654895 10.817555
2025-05-04 0.878052 1.506081 2.444502 3.909117 6.087857 9.149764 13.702680
2025-05-11 0.684713 1.290195 2.264384 3.886138 6.441526 10.217811 16.093749
2025-05-18 0.520302 1.075020 2.033689 3.730326 6.551052 10.916305 17.994103
2025-05-25 0.393593 0.890429 1.810778 3.537470 6.556332 11.431941 19.640391
2025-06-01 0.320480 0.786977 1.706313 3.521704 6.836774 12.389458 22.039839
2025-06-08 0.267273 0.709501 1.633134 3.545404 7.178771 13.468021 24.713806
2025-06-15 0.221123 0.634488 1.548746 3.530760 7.442988 14.429972 27.262888
2025-06-22 0.171174 0.535398 1.393066 3.346968 7.363441 14.776784 28.779692
2025-06-29 0.141983 0.479778 1.320532 3.320573 7.578159 15.660449 31.293315
2025-07-06 0.116662 0.427580 1.247244 3.285413 7.780467 16.557495 33.939994
2025-07-13 0.106602 0.417009 1.273459 3.478210 8.475818 18.447833 38.556529
2025-07-20 0.094601 0.396507 1.270213 3.601650 9.037376 20.125895 42.899050
2025-07-27 0.086449 0.386046 1.291459 3.786758 9.752326 22.161939 48.062236
2025-08-03 0.072508 0.350065 1.234262 3.767592 10.008026 23.293498 51.553135
2025-08-10 0.057336 0.302806 1.132933 3.617045 9.942530 23.756307 53.755598
2025-08-17 0.044302 0.257544 1.025499 3.429702 9.763790 23.959751 55.443186
2025-08-24 0.037237 0.234592 0.983170 3.414490 9.998339 25.063448 59.037282
2025-08-31 0.031962 0.217384 0.955827 3.437607 10.330304 26.404591 63.210191
2025-09-07 0.026921 0.198602 0.918108 3.423370 10.564469 27.544117 67.028588
2025-09-14 0.020646 0.169006 0.832021 3.244488 10.344794 27.632710 68.597699